The Four Horsemen of Apocalyptic Decision Making

This entry is part 1 of 5 in the series Apocalyptic Decision Making

The four horsemen of apocalyptic decision making are Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity or VUCA for short. Just as customers do when they don’t understand, we tend to procrastinate, postpone or avoid decisions on events we don’t understand. These horsemen thwart our decision making in this way causing lost opportunities and more problems. Nathan Bennett…

Read More

Apocalyptic Decision Making – Dealing with Volatility

This entry is part 2 of 5 in the series Apocalyptic Decision Making

Nathan Bennett and G. James Lemoine (“What VUCA Really Means for You” [Harvard Business Review, January 2014 edition]) superficially introduced the four horsemen of apocalyptic decision making (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity [VUCA]). This post dives deeper into volatility, and future ones will address the others. While two or more are often at play, for…

Read More

Apocalyptic Decision Making – Dealing with Uncertainty

This entry is part 3 of 5 in the series Apocalyptic Decision Making

When four horsemen of apocalyptic decision making (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity [VUCA]) confront us, we tend to avoid them. We avoid uncertainty in our decision making by focusing more on what we do know. Not knowing how known factors might play out characterizes uncertainty. In Nathan Bennett’s and G. James Lemoine’s (“What VUCA Really…

Read More

Dealing with Complexity

This entry is part 4 of 5 in the series Apocalyptic Decision Making

When dealing with complexity, simplifying it to the point of unrealism so it’s easier to understand becomes a major danger. As the article, “What VUCA Really Means for You” (Harvard Business Review, January 2014 edition) by Nathan Bennett and G. James Lemoine, indicated; when any of the four horsemen of apocalyptic decision making (Volatility, Uncertainty,…

Read More

Dealing with Ambiguity

This entry is part 5 of 5 in the series Apocalyptic Decision Making

Dealing with ambiguity often occurs when doing things for the first time. The temptation is to make such events clearer than they really are. This is normal. It should alert us though that we are headed down a path of setting errant expectations. As a leader, it means not preparing our people well for changes….

Read More