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David Mandel

Better Forecaster of Future, Confidence or Prudence?

Posted on04 Aug 2014

TagsJames Surowiecki, accountability, competence, confidence, future, Personality, The Economist, The New Yorker, University of Pennsylvania, Philip Tetlock, David Mandel, Alan Barnes, Defence Research and Development Canada, forecasting, prudence

Comments2

Who’s better at forecasting, the confident or prudent? So far, the prudent seem to be winning confidently. More decisively, those most confident...

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