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David Mandel

Better Forecaster of Future, Confidence or Prudence?

Posted on04 Aug 2014

TagsThe New Yorker, prudence, forecasting, Defence Research and Development Canada, Alan Barnes, David Mandel, Philip Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania, The Economist, Personality, James Surowiecki, future, confidence, competence, accountability

Comments2

Who’s better at forecasting, the confident or prudent? So far, the prudent seem to be winning confidently. More decisively, those most confident...

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